“I would hope what [the Wagner rebellion] does is reinforce to members of Congress, particularly some of my Republican colleagues, who were talking about not continuing funding Ukraine, that this is why it is important to make sure that we are funding Ukraine to push forward,” House Foreign Affairs Committee rating member Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) mentioned on MSNBC on Monday.
Increasing Ukraine aid is much from a given. Bipartisan assist for additional arming Kyiv runs deep in Congress, however there’s a vocal swath of conservatives, and a few progressives, that oppose extra U.S. aid. Many high leaders additionally concede that new funding will hinge on whether or not Ukraine’s counteroffensive makes progress in pushing again Russian forces.
The U.S. nonetheless has authorization to tug billions of {dollars} price of tools from American shares and ship it to Ukraine. Yet the White House nonetheless has to request authority when the present one runs out. It hasn’t completed so but, and congressional leaders are divided over the prospect of approving extra. The Pentagon, in the meantime, is taking a wait-and-see strategy to regardless of the subsequent request is perhaps.
American army aid for Ukraine comes in two kinds: direct drawdowns from current shares beneath the Presidential Drawdown Authority, and the longer-term Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which makes use of U.S. funds to signal contracts for weapons and tools in the months and years to return.
If any of that funding is to be elevated, it gained’t come from the spending blueprint already earlier than Congress.
“There’s no additional money in the base budget,” mentioned one senior Defense Department official, who was granted anonymity to talk about issues nonetheless beneath dialogue. “We’ve got either the president’s drawdown authority or [Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative] authority as the two primary means to support Ukraine, but for future budgets, it’s probably too early to tell where things will end up relative to additional … replenishment numbers.”
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, simply after securing the debt restrict and spending caps deal this month, mentioned he had no plans to take up any supplemental spending past the common fiscal 2024 funds into consideration. Additional spending, due to this fact, would imply operating afoul beneath the caps of the debt deal, and dangers upsetting lawmakers on the Republican proper flank who needed to see deeper spending cuts and oppose new aid for Kyiv.
That places him at odds with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who on Tuesday reupped his name to hurry extra weapons to the frontline in the wake of the riot. The GOP chief advised reporters in Kentucky that “it’s hard to imagine” the rebellion “is bad news” for Ukraine.
“If you look around the whole world right now, the single most important mission of the free world should be the defeat of the Russians in Ukraine,” McConnell mentioned.
“I know there are some voices of opposition in the United States, but here’s a way to look at it: the amount of money we’ve spent, sent to Ukraine is about .02 percent of our gross national product, and most of it is spent in this country,” McConnell mentioned. “So we have a country only asking for help that’s doing the fighting.”
Another Republican supporter of Ukraine aid, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), mentioned on “Meet the Press” on Sunday that it’s been cash nicely spent. The aid, which equates to five p.c of the U.S. army funds, has helped take out half of Russia’s army, he mentioned.
“Our actions have helped Ukraine prevail to the extent that they are right now. They’re still in a war, Russia controls 10 percent of their country, but without our aid, without our support, I think Ukraine would have fallen by now,” mentioned Bacon, a member of the House Armed Services Committee.
“Too many Republicans have tried to stay under the radar on this, and we do best when we stand for what’s right and what’s truthful,” Bacon mentioned.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a McCarthy ally and member of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, mentioned the turmoil in Russia is an indication Washington should, “remain fully committed to assisting our friends in Ukraine with the tools they need to defeat the Russian regime.”
“The events that occurred over the weekend in Russia show what many of us already knew: Vladimir Putin is a weak leader who launched an unprovoked war on a sovereign nation,” Fitzpatrick mentioned in a press release. “As the majority of lawmakers agree, a Ukrainian victory is also a victory for American economic and national security, and global stability.”
Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), on MSNBC, argued that as a result of McCarthy is hemmed in by his proper flank, the state of affairs may deny Ukraine what it wants in its counteroffensive.
“That’s why I think unity right now is so important. If we can do all we can right now to help Ukraine make this push, as Russia is on its heels, this could really change the course of the conflict and get Russia finally out of Ukraine,” Swalwell mentioned,
“This is a moment right now that we can increase funding, but if he sees himself as more important than what happens on the battlefield in Ukraine, they’re going to … not be able to meet this opportunity,” Swalwell mentioned of McCarthy.
Despite the bipartisan push, Congress has its share of doubters. In the wake of DOD’s admission final week that it overestimated the worth of the weapons it has despatched to Ukraine by $6.2 billion over the previous two years, one Republican lawmaker concerned in funds and appropriations discussions with McCarthy mentioned there’s not but a strong case for a brand new tranche of aid.
“First, the implications of developments in Ukraine and Russia are still playing out,” mentioned the lawmaker, who was granted anonymity to debate closed-door conversations amongst Republicans. “Second, it’s pretty clear DOD doesn’t have a clue how much money they have or need for Ukraine. They have some work to do there. Last, our position that we would oppose anything that attempts to circumvent the debt ceiling limit of $886 billion stands.”
Congressional Ukraine Caucus Co-Chair Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) was assured Ukraine already had the assist in Congress it must win extra aid and wouldn’t put inventory in the occasions in Russia swaying his colleagues.
“This just keeps it positive, because I still think the majority is with us — majorities in the House and Senate and majorities of Democrats and Republicans,” Quigley mentioned in an interview, including about latest occasions: “It just shows [Putin’s] weakness and incompetence in prosecuting this war.”
As the Wagner mutiny unfolded, high House Armed Services Committee Democrat Adam Smith mentioned the influence on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could be “difficult to predict.” Still, divisions in Russia may provide “a prime opportunity” for Ukraine’s counteroffensive to realize steam, he mentioned.
Three protection trade lobbyists advised POLITICO they assume the Wagner riot will assist protection hawks argue for a supplemental spending request for the Pentagon and Ukraine.
But the chance of passing a supplemental earlier than late fall is slim as a result of of the restricted time on Congress’s calendar over the following two months, mentioned the lobbyists, who have been granted anonymity to candidly talk about the state of play.
“It will give a boost to the efforts on a supplemental because of the heightened instability it’s creating. The instability in Russia, however it plays out, makes the world more dangerous across the board,” one of the lobbyists mentioned.
Congress is on recess for July 4 and also will be in August, which doesn’t depart time for a supplemental earlier than the tip of the fiscal yr. Lawmakers are extra targeted on passing appropriations payments, the lobbyists mentioned.
Until then, funding for Ukraine is restricted inside the base funds. Defense coverage and spending laws superior by the House and Senate Armed Services Committees and the House Appropriations Committee final week inexperienced lights $300 million for the Pentagon to arm Ukraine, even with Biden’s funds request.
