The US is considerably stepping up its commitment to use its nuclear arsenal to defend South Korea, because it seeks to reassure Seoul in regards to the power of their alliance within the face of threats from North Korea.
President Joe Biden and his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol are set to announce on Wednesday that the US navy will deploy extra nuclear-capable bombers and different strategic property on momentary missions to South Korea to ship a transparent message to Pyongyang about deterrence.
The two nations, which celebrated the seventieth anniversary of their alliance final 12 months, can even create a brand new bilateral nuclear consultative group to give Seoul extra perception and enter into US conflict planning.
Biden and Yoon, who’s on a state visit to the US, will signal a “Washington declaration”, which can embrace a commitment from South Korea not to develop its personal nuclear weapons, US officers mentioned.
The rhetoric and new navy deployments are designed to not solely reassure the South Korean public that Washington will defend its ally but additionally to be sure that Seoul doesn’t construct atomic weapons, which US officers fear would spark a harmful nuclear arms race in Asia.
Under the so-called nuclear umbrella, nuclear-armed states assure to defend nuclear-unarmed allied states, and senior US officers mentioned the declaration would make their commitment to deterrence “crystal clear”. The transfer comes simply months after the Biden administration warned in its Nuclear Posture Review {that a} North Korean assault on US allies would lead to “the end of that regime”.
“We intend to take steps to make our deterrence more visible through the regular deployment of strategic [nuclear] assets, including a US nuclear ballistic submarine visit to South Korea, which has not happened since the early 1980s,” mentioned one senior US official.
The official added that the allies would enhance coaching to improve deterrence and work in direction of “better integrating Republic of Korean conventional assets into our strategic planning”. A second official mentioned the elevated visibility would come with extra visits by plane carriers.
The second official mentioned the nuclear consultative group was impressed by the same association Washington had with Nato in the course of the chilly conflict, however whereas Nato has tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, the US has no nuclear weapons in South Korea. “I’ll be crystal clear, there is no vision of returning US tactical or any other kind of nuclear weapon to the Korean peninsula,” the official added.
Zack Cooper, an Asia safety professional on the American Enterprise Institute, mentioned the transfer would be sure that South Korea didn’t attempt to develop nuclear weapons, whereas giving Seoul the assurances it had repeatedly sought from the US.
“This is a smart effort to proactively address a growing risk to the . . . alliance: Seoul’s dalliance with the idea of acquiring its own independent nuclear capabilities,” mentioned Cooper.
“It is only natural that experts and the public in South Korea would want to bolster deterrence capabilities. After all, North Korea continues to expand and modernise its nuclear forces while Russia levies nuclear threats and China engages in a massive nuclear build-up.”
But there are doubts, together with whether or not the settlement can maintain if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in 2024.
Go Myong-hyun, a senior fellow on the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, mentioned that the extent of reassurance provided to Seoul by Washington would depend upon the “precise agenda” of the brand new session group.
“The important thing for the South Koreans is to be able to get greater insight and input into US thinking on nuclear issues . . . specifically nuclear use scenarios in the event of a war with North Korea,” mentioned Go, who added that the seen go to of a nuclear-armed submarine is “definitely a win” for the South Korean facet.
Anxiety in Seoul has grown as North Korea continues to develop its nuclear weapons programme. Last 12 months, Pyongyang adopted a new nuclear doctrine permitting pre-emptive strikes in a variety of situations, together with when the nation or the federal government was attacked by typical forces.
South Korean leaders — together with Yoon himself — have openly speculated that Seoul may in the future pursue its personal nuclear deterrent, a transfer strongly opposed by the US.
Go mentioned this mirrored longstanding fears that North Korea’s nuclear capabilities could already be ample to deter the US from intervening in any battle on Seoul’s behalf.
“There has always been a fear in South Korea of US abandonment,” mentioned Go. “The Biden administration will succeed in reassuring the Koreans for the time being, but the underlying dilemma has not gone away.”
