Press play to pay attention to this text
Voiced by synthetic intelligence.
BRUSSELS/PARIS — Europe’s hope it may buoy an island of stability in West Africa is drowning as Niger slips beneath army rule.
The EU — and France notably — wager massive on Niger, with Paris sending assets and troops to the nation and the EU committing €40 million to assist prepare and equip the Nigerien army. The aim was to arrest Russia’s seeping affect within the area, eradicate burgeoning terrorist threats and stem the migration routes snaking by means of Niger.
All of that’s now unsure.
This week, Niger’s army — the identical one the EU pledged to prepare — took the nation’s democratically elected president hostage and proclaimed it was now in cost. As the coup unfolded, the Kremlin-linked Wagner mercenary group was fast to take (doubtful) credit score for serving to and Russian propagandists gladly unfold the message broadly.
For Europe, it’s a significant setback. The Continent has misplaced vital sway within the area after related army coups in close by international locations like Mali and Burkina Faso. Those occasions pressured France, as soon as a neighborhood colonial energy, to pull out and shift its technique. It will now have to accomplish that again, alongside its EU allies.
“The shock waves are going to be far-reaching,” Laurent Bigot, a former French diplomat and Western Africa specialist, informed POLITICO. “With our fixation on stability, we make the same mistake of supporting failing regimes, and at the end it leads us inevitably towards a crisis.”
This week’s coup, Bigot added, “sounds the death knell for France’s military presence in Africa.”
Timing is every little thing
Regional instability implies that coups should not uncommon on this a part of Africa. But the timing of the heave in opposition to Niger’s chief, a Western ally, is ominous for Brussels.
Moscow’s affect on this week’s occasions is unattainable to ignore — from claims of direct involvement within the coup by the Wagner Group, which has a deep presence within the area, to supporters brandishing a Russian flag outdoors the National Assembly.
The timing of the facility seize additionally was hanging, approaching the eve of a significant Russia-Africa summit hosted in St. Petersburg by President Vladimir Putin. Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin — supposedly banished into exile a month in the past after staging a failed rebellion in Russia — appeared on the fringes of the summit in eye-catching photo opportunities. And he openly claimed to have aided the rebels.
“This is actually gaining independence and getting rid of the colonialists,” Prigozhin mentioned in a voice message posted on a Wagner-branded Telegram channel.
“This shows the effectiveness of Wagner,” Prigozhin continued. “A thousand Wagner fighters are able to restore order and destroy terrorists, preventing them from harming the civilian population.”
Prigozhin’s line is being amplified by allied data shops: On Friday, the Grey Zone Telegram channel reported that demonstrations in assist of Wagner had been held in Burkina Faso, Mali and the Central African Republic — all international locations the place the mercenary group is already entrenched — as well as to Niger.
Nonetheless, veteran Russia watcher Mark Galeotti doubted that the coup in Niger was made to order.
“This sounds like opportunistic spin to me rather than cunning planning,” Galeotti, director of Mayak Intelligence, a consultancy, informed POLITICO. “Coups are potentially risky things — no one schedules them for someone else’s photo op.”
Still, a significant problem for the West within the Sahel is the Wagner Group’s skill to courtroom native leaders in a manner it will possibly’t. Described by Galeotti as a “one-stop shop” for autocrats, Wagner presents providers starting from armed safety to propaganda in change for profitable concessions — a lower of which is often kicked again to native elites.
Managing migration
The different problem lurking for Europe is the implication for migration.
Europe is grappling with an inflow of migrants from Africa, inking a cope with Tunisia in current weeks in a bid to scale back the movement of individuals looking for asylum on Europe’s shores.
Many of those migrants come from — or by means of — Niger, and the nation was seen as a dependable and protected accomplice for Europe because it mentioned the problem. The nation itself can be residence to lots of of 1000’s of refugees from Mali, Nigeria and Burkina Faso.
According to a senior EU official who was granted anonymity to converse freely, French reviews on migration patterns in Niger and the encompassing area have been central to Europe’s plans to handle the state of affairs.
Additionally, worldwide organizations mapping migration traits are consistently monitoring the Nigerien cities of Arlit and Séguédine. Associations just like the International Organization for Migration, a United Nations company, have a heavy presence there.
Next steps
Since information of the coup broke on Wednesday, European officers and leaders have scrambled to assess the state of affairs.
French President Emmanuel Macron, high EU diplomat Josep Borrel and European Council President Charles Michel have all spoken to Bazoum, who stays beneath armed guard on the presidential palace in Niamey — however an data hole stays.
Officials say the state of affairs within the capital is far calmer than it was in different international locations, like Sudan, the place inside clashes broke out in April.
As of Friday, the EU ambassador remained in place within the capital of Niamey. (The EU’s ambassador to Sudan was assaulted throughout April’s violence.)
European officers are additionally current in Niger by means of a civilian-led mission geared toward strengthening the nation’s inside safety sector — though its future now hangs within the stability. An analogous mission in close by Mali, in place since 2014, has been depleted as European forces have moved out of the war-torn nation.
However the state of affairs performs out, there’s a widespread sense in Brussels and nationwide capitals the bloc will want to stay engaged within the nation, notably given its position in migration.
“There’s too much at stake for the EU,” mentioned an EU diplomat who has been carefully following the area and migration. “It will need to engage also with who will be in charge, we don’t have the luxury of ignoring them.”
Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting from Brussels. Laura Kayali contributed reporting from Paris.
