Biden-von der Leyen 2024?

Up for election in 2024? The transatlantic alliance.

By a quirk of timing, 2024 will see not solely America elect a president, however Europe select its subsequent slate of high EU officers.

And with Joe Biden formally launching his re-election marketing campaign final week, the U.S. president is now one step nearer to going through voters inside months of his EU counterpart, Ursula von der Leyen, who remains to be deciding whether or not to hunt her personal second time period atop the European Commission.

In some ways, the non-public chemistry between the 2 is on the poll. The two leaders have solid robust ties whereas in workplace collectively regardless of persistent friction between the U.S. and Europe over every little thing from tariffs to subsidies to safety offers.

That signifies that whether or not the duo stays or goes will inevitably have profound penalties for the transatlantic alliance.

A defeated Biden might imply a return of Donald Trump, who as president launched a commerce conflict with Europe, overtly questioned multilateralism and forged the European Union as a foe. And a departing von der Leyen would deprive a re-elected Biden of a resolute EU ally on sensitive topics like sanctioning Russia and preserving China at bay. 

If they each go away, the transatlantic relationship will enter unchartered territory.

That’s a situation their supporters aren’t eager to face.

“We are fortunate to have European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President Biden where they are today,” Representative Gregory Meeks, the highest Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, instructed POLITICO. “It takes leadership and moral clarity to lead coalitions of allies and partners in addressing our shared global challenges.”

Good occasions (regardless of the crinkles)

The arrival of Biden, a dedicated transatlanticist, to the White House in 2021 was greeted with barely-contained relief in Brussels.

The EU was nonetheless reeling from the roller-coaster Trump years and it appeared inevitable that issues might solely get higher with the pro-EU Biden within the White House. Still, the connection between Brussels and Washington has returned to a good keel a lot faster than many anticipated.

“Relations between the EU and the United States are in a much better place than they were during the Trump administration,” stated Anthony Gardner, who served as U.S. ambassador to the European Union between 2014 and 2017. “Part of that is down to the strong relationship between Biden and von der Leyen, which has allowed the sides to manage through any challenges in the relationship.”

He cited the latest coordination on sanctions towards Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine as proof of the tight relationship. It’s a sea change from 2014, Gardner stated, recalling his expertise of working with the EU to collectively sanction Moscow following its annexation of Crimea. 

“The distinction between how far and how fast we moved on sanctions is remarkable,” he stated. “It’s a highly complex process. Both sides have gone way beyond anything that was agreed back in 2014.”

Part of this is because of a gathering of minds between von der Leyen, the 64-year-old former German protection minister, and Biden the forty sixth U.S. president, who was intimately acquainted with Ukraine coverage following his stint as vp in the course of the Obama administration.

As Washington was portray dire warnings about Russia’s intentions towards Ukraine in late 2021, few individuals in Europe had been listening. Von der Leyen was. At a important Oval Office assembly in November of that yr, Biden, who had simply come from a briefing by nationwide safety and intelligence officers concerning the buildup of Russian battalions close to the Ukraine border, sounded the alarm to von der Leyen.  

“The president was very concerned,” one European official recalled final October, talking on situation of anonymity. “This was a time when no one in Europe was paying any attention, even the intelligence services.”

Following the assembly, von der Leyen’s staff labored stealthily with the U.S. administration on a package deal of sanctions that could possibly be adopted if Moscow determined to ship troops throughout the border. When Russia invaded, the Commission was able to go.

Not all rosy

While the conflict in Ukraine has pushed Europe and the U.S. nearer collectively, it hasn’t all been easy crusing.

An early signal of troubles forward was America’s decision to go for a protection pact with Australia and the U.Okay., referred to as AUKUS. The resolution price France a multi-billion euro submarine contract and provided a chilling reminder to Europe of the place it stood within the international pecking order.

Similarly, a plan to take away Trump-era metal and aluminum tariffs on the EU nonetheless remains unresolved greater than two years into the Biden presidency. Though the U.S. president agreed to a short lived cessation of hostilities in 2021, each side should strike a brand new deal this yr or threat the return of tariffs.

But the largest pressure on relations was Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. The president’s landmark piece of local weather laws induced fury in Europe as hefty U.S. subsidies lured European corporations away.

Since then, von der Leyen has been busy making an attempt to easy the waters. A White House go to final month didn’t result in a significant breakthrough, however she argued it has laid the groundwork for tweaks that may permit European car-makers to profit from inexperienced vitality tax advantages. The two companions additionally agreed to work collectively on bolstering uncooked materials cooperation.

Von der Leyen’s perceived closeness to Biden has ruffled some feathers. European Council President Charles Michel has questioned whether or not Europe ought to be hitching its wagon too firmly to the United States, notably on the subject of China coverage. It’s a view echoed by French President Emmanuel Macron, who warned towards Europe turning into a “follower” of the U.S. in an interview with POLITICO and the French newspaper Les Echos. 

As von der Leyen mulls whether or not to hunt a second five-year time period atop the Commission, hypothesis is rife in Brussels about her future.

The former protection minister has been linked to the upcoming emptiness on the helm of NATO, although the place is opening up effectively earlier than her mandate as Commission chief ends.

The U.S., whereas having the last word say on who will get the NATO job, might favor to have somebody with the White House’s ear atop the EU.

For Gardner, the previous U.S. ambassador, it’s von der Leyen’s place on China that is without doubt one of the closest indications of the energy of the connection between the Biden administration and the European Commission. The EU govt has inched towards the harsher U.S. line on Beijing, whilst a few of Europe’s strongest nations warn that the EU should keep economically engaged with China. 

“Back then, the Commission and EU institutions were in a very different place on China, and the China challenge,” Gardner stated. “Fast forward today — the speeches, the policy announcements indicate not quite an alignment with the United States, but the EU has moved much closer to the U.S. view.”

As the United States sounds the warning bell about Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions, notably on the subject of Taiwan, Biden might uncover he wants that supportive voice on China that von der Leyen affords. Given the resistance by some EU figures — not least Macron — to America’s world-view in Asia, Biden might have all of the assist he can get.