[Analysis] Will Frans Timmermans be the next Dutch PM on Wednesday?

The solely factor that prevented an bizarre November morning morphing right into a calamity have been only a few males pushing the flood-control buttons (and promptly fixing a malfunctioning sluice).

This in some way displays what the Netherlands in 2023 is all about: a rustic in denial that, by a hair’s breadth, plus a convention of punctiliousness, scrapes by and prevents public providers from breaking down solely — regardless of years of neglect and austerity imposed by prime minister Mark Rutte’s first three governments.

I say denial as a result of the capital’s near-flooding barely acquired any media consideration in any respect exterior of that NRC article — revealed two weeks later.

In truth, local weather change (or flood safety) isn’t a distinguished election matter amongst lead contenders in any respect this 12 months. Out of the 4 prime polling events, local weather change solely options prominently in the Labour-Green marketing campaign led by former EU heavyweight Frans Timmermans, who was Green Deal commissioner earlier than leaving Brussels to return to Dutch politics in August.

As EUobserver beforehand reported, certainly one of the buzzwords defining these elections is ‘bestaanszekerheid,’ a time period that interprets to “livelihood safety.” A subject Labour-Green historically excels in and has now promised to rebuild by investing extra in the welfare state.

Livelihood safety is decided by greater than revenue and work; it relies upon on a set of interconnected and interdependent belongings and circumstances that make up a life price dwelling.

This consists of inexpensive housing and social capital gained from intact native communities that want issues like first rate healthcare, schooling or a park bench to maintain it. Things Timmermans has promised to take a position extra in.

His celebration, a brand new coalition between the Green Left and the Dutch Labour Party (PvdA), briefly shot up in the polls when the new alliance was introduced in August.

That instantly made him a contender for the prime spot. And when he attended the annual congress of the European Socialists in Málaga simply over every week in the past, he was hailed as the Netherlands’ new prime minister in all however title.

But all isn’t nicely on the socialist entrance.

‘Timmermans Effect’ not working?

“It’s clear that the marketing campaign is not progressing in the approach [the new left] anticipated,” political scientist Simon Otjes informed EUosberver.

The hoped-for ‘Timmermans-effect’, that resulted in a doubling of the Socialist & Democrats vote in the 2019 European Parliamentary elections has not translated again to the nationwide stage. Like in earlier campaigns, the EU has barely featured as a subject throughout these elections, making it harder for Timmermans to level to previous successes.

“The EU historically is an unpopular election matter. The cliché has it that voters have a tendency to alter channels if the EU is talked about,” stated Otjes.

In the closing stretch of the Dutch elections, the narrative has taken maintain that the former Green Deal chief isn’t pulling his weight (pun not supposed, though Timmermans’ weight has been the butt of jokes on nationwide tv on a number of events.)

His celebration — now polling at 16 % — is again at the stage it was earlier than the events merged and he introduced his candidacy.

He is now projected to rank fourth this week, trailing the liberal VVD (caretaker prime minister Mark Rutte’s celebration now led by Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius), the overtly anti-Islam Party for Freedom led by Geert Wilders and the New Social Contract, a breakaway celebration based solely in August by Pieter Omtzigt, a former long-serving member of parliament for the centre-right CDA.

Even although Omtzigt has been in politics for over 20 years, he has efficiently managed to launch a “challenger marketing campaign,” stated Otjes.

“The Netherlands historically has had a centre-right majority,” he stated. The solely time it has had a solidly leftwing authorities was in the mid-Seventies.

The approach Labour has historically handled that truth has primarily consisted of the similar two components for many years.

First, by positioning itself as the solely possible leftwing various in a position to govern. And second: by centring the marketing campaign round who will change into prime minister.

The dynamic the Green Labour marketing campaign staff had clearly hoped for, nevertheless, has not materialised and is now as a substitute characterised by a challenger versus the institution, which places the highly-experienced Timmermans at an obstacle.

“Omtzigt has utterly altered the political panorama,” he stated.

Who is definitely ‘the outsider’?

The lack of enthusiasm for Timmermans could, partially, be ascribed to voters looking for a distinct face quite than confirmed management.

Yet Yeşilgöz-Zegerius leads a celebration that has been in energy for 26 out of the previous 29 years — a truth she expertly has managed to hide throughout debates.

Omtzigt, the principal challenger, has been in politics for over 20 years and is the second-longest-sitting MP and certainly one of the most skilled politicians in the nation.

Meanwhile, Wilders, who needs the Netherlands to go away the EU, is at present polling as the primary in some forecasts.

Wilders, whom no one needed to ask into authorities for years, has modified his tune considerably to seem ‘milder’ and enhance his possibilities of governing. He additionally positions himself as an outsider. In truth, he’s now the longest-sitting MP in the 150-seat parliament.

Yet it was Timmermans who was attacked in a televised debate by all of the above for being the perennial insider — any individual who, as Wilders described it, has “misplaced grip on actuality.”

Intellectually, many social democrats could have anticipated these elections to really feel extra like a house recreation. “We can undoubtedly beat them,” one campaigner informed EUobserver anonymously, referring to the far-right.

And there’s a perception that leftwing subjects are widespread.

Timmermans campaigned on a ticket to boost the minimal wage, shield the local weather and lift taxes for multinational companies and shareholders, proposals ostensibly not a troublesome promote in certainly one of the most unequal international locations in Europe.

But with polling numbers trending down, a vocal group of (former) celebration members are panicking, calling out Timmermans on social media for being too centrist, though it’s unclear whether or not that will shift the steadiness at this late stage.

“The left, to a level, has misplaced its contact on topics regarding the welfare state and safety of livelihood,” stated Andrej Zaslove, an assistant professor of comparative politics at Radboud University. Labour remains to be blamed for the austerity imposed by Rutte’s second authorities, which included the Labour Party then led by Diederik Samsom, who later turned Timmermans’ cupboard chief in Brussels.

An additional problem dealing with the left is that ‘bestaansrecht’, the phrase meant to encapsulate the social democratic beliefs right into a bitesize bit, has misplaced that means.

Last Thursday night time (16 November) the prime 4 candidates confronted one another, to debate their plans for the nation’s future.

Although the debate rapidly devolved right into a confused and shameful mud-slinging contest, it turned clear that every one main events had annexed ‘bestaanszekerheid’ as the central marketing campaign theme — simply deciphering it in a different way.

While the VVD applies the time period to imply decrease taxes for “hard-working folks,” the liberal-left D66 associates it with the proper to find out the finish of life.

Wilders has promised to scrap medical insurance prices — a promise his opponents say lacks monetary backing — and Omtzigt retains repeating the phrase, though its that means is considerably elusive.

“I’ve no clue what he means with it,” Zaslove informed EUobserver.

But that won’t matter that a lot for normal voters. “They belief him. People who’re typically distrustful of politicians imagine he’s not the kind that likes to be pushed round by a chauffeur,” stated Otjes.

“Much can nonetheless change in the closing days earlier than the elections,” added Otjes, a view echoed by most polling consultants. With Wilders now a contender for the prime spot, Timmermans, who has repeatedly stated “he doesn’t wish to get up in a rustic the place [Wilders party] is primary,” could entice strategic anti-Wilders votes.

“I anticipate that we’ll see extra strategic votes,” stated Peter Kanne, senior researcher at I&O Research, certainly one of the principal Dutch polling businesses.

“In the earlier elections, it leaned in the direction of D66 and Sigrid Kaag; this time, it might go in the direction of GreenLeft-PvdA. I anticipate a small shock on the left,” he stated.